Apple commits to June iPhone release, 10M units in 2008

"Development of the iPhone is keeping up its pace, and Apple says their June release date is on schedule. Some concerns arose when they mentioned not too long ago that the Leopard release for OS X would be delayed to push development of the iPhone up, leading some to believe that perhaps both projects might end up not meeting their deadlines. It's quite common for releases to be pushed back (we're looking at you, R600), but Apple is committed: From the beginning, Apple said that the iPhone would ship in June of this year and would be a Cingular Wireless (AT&T Wireless) exclusive phone. Late last month, an unofficial launch date of June 11 was reported by CNET. The launch would coincide with Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference in San Francisco which is slated to run from June 11 through June 15. A timely release is important for them, especially considering they are planning to have sold at least 10 million units by the end of next year. At $499-599 a pop, that might be difficult. "

Gates

iFund

"KPCB’s iFund™ is a $100M investment initiative that will fund market-changing ideas and products that extend the revolutionary new iPhone and iPod touch platform. The iFund™ is agnostic to size and stage of investment and will invest in companies building applications, services and components. Focus areas include location based services, social networking, mCommerce (including advertising and payments), communication, and entertainment. The iFund™ will back innovators pursuing transformative, high-impact ideas with an eye towards building independent durable companies atop the iPhone / iPod touch platform.
"A revolutionary new platform is a rare and prized opportunity for entrepreneurs, and that's exactly what Apple has created with iPhone and iPod touch," said John Doerr, Partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers. "We think several significant new companies will emerge as this new platform evolves, and the iFund™ will empower them to realize their full potential."
"Developers are already bursting with ideas for the iPhone and iPod touch, and now they have the chance to turn those ideas into great companies with the help of world-class venture capitalists," said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. "We can't wait to start working with Kleiner Perkins and the companies they fund through this new initiative."
The iFund™ will be managed by KPCB Partner Matt Murphy in collaboration with partners Chi-Hua Chien, John Doerr, Bill Joy, Randy Komisar, Ellen Pao and Ted Schlein. Apple will provide KPCB with market insight and support. "

Apple Is Transparent in Bid To Broaden iPhone's Reach - WSJ.com

"Apple Inc.'s iPhone boasts the power of a computer under its metallic-and-glass shell, including a stripped-down version of the software that runs Apple's Macintosh computers. Soon independent software makers will be able to harness that power themselves, in a development that could broaden the iPhone's appeal."

"Apple has invited the media to an event Thursday at the company's Cupertino, Calif., headquarters, where it plans to present an "iPhone software roadmap." One of the event's highlights will be a software-development kit that will let independent programmers build iPhone applications, according to Apple's invitation.

Since the iPhone made its debut in June, software developers have bridled over how Apple hasn't allowed them to create programs that could tap into the device's full potential. To prevent viruses that could wreak havoc on the gadget, Apple has only allowed developers to make software that runs through the iPhone's Safari Web browser, but not more full-featured "native" applications that users could download and store on their phones.

In plain English, that means iPhone users have been stuck with hobbled software from independent developers. Although the applications that run through its Web browser are more secure, they can't be accessed when users are away from a wireless network."

TTD: Apple COO Cook Confirms Forecast For 10 Million iPhone Sales In 2008; Stock Jumps After Hours (Updated)

"Apple (AAPL) shares are making a nice move after hours, apparently in response to a talk COO Tim Cook gave a little while ago at the Goldman Sachs tech conference in Las Vegas. I’m trying to track down a transcript or a playback; no luck so far. However, the talk was covered by live by MacDailyNews, which will have to do for now. (Update: I listened to the call, and can confirm that he said it.)
(A spokesman for Apple tells me that a playback should be on the Apple IR web site soon; I will add a link once they have it live.)
Update: There is a link here; I can’t seem to get it to work through our fire wall, but I’ll try it again from another spot shortly; please let me know if you successfully launch the replay.A few tidbits from the MacDailyNews account:
He was bullish on Mac: “huge headroom,” iPhone: “enormous potential,” iPod: “transforming into first mobile platform” with the Touch, and AppleTV “potential exists for enormous opportunity.”
Lower price on Shuffle should help sales in emerging markets.
To Apple, iPod does not feel like a saturated market.
On track for 10 million iPhones in 2008.
iPhone unlocking shows pent-up worldwide demand.
Did not rule out selling unlocked iPhones; will roll out in more markets.
In after hours trading, Apple is up $4.54, or 3.7%, to $127.50; the stock was up $3.81 in the regular session.
UPDATE: So, the link works fine. And MacDailyNews did a pretty nice summary of the call; the confirmation on the iPhone sales goal is correct.
Here are some additional tidbits:
Cook said they can grow the Mac even if the PC market were flat, since the target is to switch Windows users over. He says the AppleTV market is not is the same realm as its other three businesses, but that “our gut” tells us there is something there.
On exposure to the consumer economy, Cook says he’s “stopped watching TV, totally…except for AppleTV, where I can watch the movie of my choice.”
On possible saturation of the iPod, he notes that units grew 5% year over year in the December quarter, with 17% growth in revenue, the highest in a year. Cook notes that he put energy into the launch of the Touch, to extend brand into being the first mainstream WiFi mobile device. They added to that with new mail and other software. The SDK next week will broaden it further. Shuffle did not do as well last quarter. Shuffle was down 17% globally, and more than that in the U.S. Shuffle pulled units down; Touch pulled ASP up. They, of course, took down the price of the Shuffle recently. Dropping entry price makes it more affordable to more buyers. Last quarter in U.S. 40% of iPods sold were to people who did not own one previously…does not feel like a saturated market, he said. Although units were flat in the U.S. Part could be the economy, part the Shuffle issue; part could be other issues.
The iPhone has the highest customer “sat” of any product ever shipped. They will talk about third party apps for the iPhone at the event next week.
On the difference between the activated phones and the total number sold - the missing iPhones - he says Apple has rolled out iPhone in four markets - U.S., U.K., Germany and France. Then they will apply learnings to future markets. The 4 million units over first 200 units gave confidence they are right on track for 10 million units in 2008 - as noted above. Demand for iPhone is so intense in markets where we are not officially selling, people are shipping them out of the country and using on other carriers. Shows a lot of world wide demand. He also says some phones sold late last year were not immediately registered.
He says they will roll out more European countries this year, and will roll out Asia this year. He also says they could use different business models in different markets. Carriers see it as a way to raise ARPU, a revolutionary device that gets people interested in using data. How many people really browse on a phone if they don’t use an iPhone: not that many, he says.
Apple in 2007 surpassed Dell as the number one supplier of portables PCs to the education market.
Target market for the air Air? Road warriors, professors, student, person on the go. We put the things in there that we think people really desired.
AppleTV: right now it IS a small nichey product. But we believe it is an area that could be big for us. But its not now."

Jimmy Kimmel is Fucking Ben Affleck!

Apple wont sell 10m units

"Before January, 2007, the last time Steve Jobs made a prediction based on hard numbers was June, 2003. The number then was 3Ghz in a Power Mac G5 within a year, but a year later, Jobs was forced to admit failure. A year after that, he fired IBM as Apple's CPU manufacturer. One wonders who will be fired this time if Apple fails to sell 10 million iPhones in 2008. MarketWatch reports on a conference call with Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi, who suggests that Apple may not make its goal.

"Apple's goal of selling 10 million iPhones this year is optimistic, particularly if Apple insists on carrier revenue sharing without significant price cuts or new model introductions," Sacconaghi said.

While there are a lot of 'ifs' in that prediction, there are also some numbers behind it. Sacconaghi asserts that iPhone sales averaged 180,000 per week during the busy holiday quarter. Going by that baseline, he expects Apple to sell just under 8 million iPhones in 2008. If measuring sales of iPhones were a linear process, that might be true, but there are several unknowables to ponder, the most salient being whether iPhone sales are accelerating the way iPod sales once did. iPhone sales more than doubled from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2007. Continued growth like that would make 10 million iPhones in 2008 a low-end estimate. However, if iPhone sales spiked like iPod sales do during the holiday quarter, then there might be a problem, as even sales averaging 180,000 per week will fall short of 10 million iPhones in 2008.

Of course, as the chart shows, there are a number of events that might boost sales of iPhones, and there may be one other factor to consider: the ego of Steve Jobs. After all, it's not like he can fire AT&T from the remaining four years of the companies' exclusivity agreement. That leaves new models and/or a price drop as potential boosters of iPhone sales in 2008. With a gross margin as high as 60 percent, there is a lot of room to drop the price. If and when that happens will likely be determined by how well the iPhone does in making the numbers, but you can bet Steve Jobs isn't going to be wrong again. Well, that and the fact that the stock of the company would suffer considerably with the realization that the iPhone was not the Next Great Thing™.